IAH Commission on Groundwater and Climate Change

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Groundwater & Climate Change

Climate change is experienced substantially through changes in the hydrological system. Groundwater is the world’s largest accessible store of freshwater yet groundwater remains largely peripheral to current analyses and discussions of climate change and adaptation. This situation is perplexing and intolerable since groundwater is the primary source of drinking water to nearly half of the world's population and, as the dominant source of water to irrigated land, is critical to global food security.

Three generic areas where the IAH-CGCC considers key progress is required are described briefly below. This overview is followed by an incomplete but growing Groundwater & Climate Change Bibliography of studies focused on groundwater and climate change. References are listed by region (Global, Africa, Asia, Americas, Australasia, Europe). Please help us keep this bibliography up to date by sending any unlisted references to one of the Commission Chairs. The intention is also to list references by subject matter. if you are willing to take contribute and maintain bibliographies by region or subject matter (with credit given on the website), please contact the Commission Chairs.

Groundwater & adaptation

Under a warming atmosphere, precipitation intensities are predicted to increase, particularly in the tropics. This projected shift in the temporal distribution of rainfall itself results in more variable river discharge and soil moisture. The former exacerbates intra-annual freshwater shortages and the risk of flooding whereas the latter threatens food security through reduced crop yields. Projected changes in the spatial distribution of mean rainfall are substantial but remain highly uncertain for most of the world. Strategies to adapt to more variable freshwater resources will, in many environments, increase dependence upon groundwater. Few climate impact models explicitly consider, however, how climate variability and change affect groundwater recharge and the sustainable development of groundwater despite its central role in enabling adaptation in domestic and agricultural water sectors.

Groundwater & climate prediction

The global hydrological cycle is a central component of the Earth’s climate system. Effective representation and quantification of hydrological fluxes are essential to improve climate simulations and prediction and to quantify impacts on water resources. At present, groundwater is poorly represented in the land-surface models (LSMs) incorporated in General Circulation Models (GCMs). Groundwater fluxes operating at a range of spatio-temporal scales require consideration. Indeed, the sensitivity of land-surface energy budgets to groundwater processes including feedbacks from soil-moisture and phreatophytic transpiration remains unclear.

Groundwater & monitoring

Fundamental constraints to both the representation of groundwater in climate models and analysis of climate impacts on groundwater include not only the limited coverage and duration of groundwater observations but also the continued difficulty of accessing available groundwater data. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) recognises groundwater as an essential climate variable but notes that data from national and regional monitoring networks are not exchanged nor managed in a centralized manner. A global initiative to rectify this situation is urgently required and key of the IAH-CGCC. The establishment of the International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC) under the auspices of UNESCO and WMO is an important first step towards sharing of groundwater information on a global scale. A second major advance in groundwater observation has come through the use of satellite observations under the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Finally, recent synthesis of groundwater mapping around the world makes available for the first time low-resolution hydrogeological maps which have the potential for integration into large–scale modelling of groundwater.

Groundwater & Climate Change Bibliography (work in progress)

Global (started)

Alcamo, J., P. Döll, T. Henrichs, F. Kaspar, B. Lehner, T. Rösch and S. Siebert (2003), Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future “business-as-usual” conditions, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 339-348.
Arnell, N.W. (1999) Climate change and global water resources. Global Environ. Change 9, s31-s49.
Arnell, N.W. (2004), Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 14, 31-52.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S. & Palutikof, J. P. (eds) (2008) Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland.
Döll, P. (2009) Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment. Environ. Res. Lett., 4, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006
Döll, P. and Florke, M. (2005) Global-scale estimation of diffuse groundwater recharge. Frankfurt Hydrology paper 3, University of Frankfurt, 21pp.
Döll, P. & Fiedler, M. (2008) Global-scale modelling of groundwater recharge. Hydrol. Earth System Sci. 12(3), 863–885.
Kingston, D., Todd, M., Taylor, R.G., Thompson, J.R. and Arnell, N., in press. Uncertainty in PET estimation under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Şen, Z. & Shiklomanov, I. (2007) Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, C. E. Hanson & P. J. van der Linden). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N., Döll, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Şen, Z. & Shiklomanov,I. (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 53(1), 3–10.
Milly, P.C.D., Dunne, K.A., Veechai, A.V. (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438 (7066), 347-350.
Oki, T. and S. Kanae (2006), Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068-1072.
Prudhomme, C., Reynard, N., Crooks, S. (2002) Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis; where are we now? Hydrological Processes, 16 (6), 1137-1150.
Shiklamanov, I. (2000) World water resources and water use, present assessment and outlook for 2025, In World water scenarios analyses (ed by Rijkeman, F.R., Earthscan publications, London) pp 160-203.

Africa (started)

Carter, R. C. & Parker, A. (2009) Climate change, population trends and groundwater in Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 676-689.
Edmunds, W. M. E. (2009) Palaeoclimate and groundwater evolution in Africa—implications for adaptation and management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54, 781-792.
Howard, K. W. F. & Griffith, A. (2009) Using transient models to confront the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves in sub-Saharan Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 754-764.
Kamga, F.M. (2001) Impact of greenhouse gas induced climate change on the runoff of the upper Benue river (Cameroon). J. Hydrol. 252, 145-156.
Kingston, D. & Taylor, R.G. (2010) Projected impacts of climate change on groundwater and stormflow in a humid, tropical catchment in the Ugandan Upper Nile Basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 1913-1944.
Kundzewicz, Z. W. & Döll, P. (2009) Will groundwater ease freshwater stress under climate change? Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 665-675.
Legesse, D., Vallet-Coulomb, C., Gasse, F. (2003) Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in tropical Africa: Case study South Central Ethiopia. J. Hydrol. 275 (1-2), 67-85.
MacDonald, A. M., Calow, R. C., Macdonald, D. M., Darling, G. W. & Dochartaigh, B. E. O. (2009) What impact will climate change have on rural water supplies in Africa? Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 690-703.
Mahé, G. (2009) Surface/groundwater interactions in the Bani and Nakambe rivers, tributaries of the Niger and Volta river basins, West Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 704-712.
Messager, C., Galle, H., Brasseur, O., Capplaere, B., Peugeot, C., Ramel, R., Grasseau, G., Leger, L., Girou, D. (2006) Influence of observed and RCM-simulated precipitation on the water discharge over the Sirba basin, Burkina Faso/Niger. Clim. Dynam. 27 (2-3), 199-214.
Mileham, L., R.G. Taylor, Todd M., Tindimugaya, C. and J. Thompson, 2009. Climate change impacts on the terrestrial hydrology of a humid, equatorial catchment: sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 727-738.
Nyenje, P. M. & Batelaan, O. (2009) Estimating effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and base flow in the upper Ssezibwa catchment, Uganda Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 713-726.
Olago, D., Opere, A. & Barongo, J. (2009) Holocene palaeohydrology, groundwater and climate change in lake basins of the Central Kenya Rift. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 765-780.
Scheuman, W. & Alker, M. (2009) Cooperation on Africa’s transboundary aquifers—conceptual ideas. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 793-802.
Taylor, R.G., Koussis, A. and Tindimugaya, C., 2009. Groundwater and climate in Africa: a review. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 655-664.
Vörösmarty, C.J., Douglas, E.M., Green, P.A., Revenga, C. (2005) Geospatial indicators of emerging water stress: an application to Africa. Ambio, 34 (3), 230-236.
Walraevens K., Vandecasteele, I., Martens, K., Nyssen, J., Moeyersons, J., Gebreyohannes, T., De Smedt, F., Poesen, J., Deckers, J. & Van Camp, M. (2009) Groundwater recharge in a small mountain catchment in northern Ethiopia. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54(4), 739-753.
Winsemius, H. C., Savenije, H. H. G., van de Giesen, N. C., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Zapreeva, E. A. & Klees, R. (2006) Assessment of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) temporal signature over the upper Zambezi. Water Resour. Res. 42, W12201.

Asia (to develop)

Americas (to develop)

Allen, D.M., Mackie, D.C. & Wei, M. (2004) Groundwater and cliamte change: a sensitivty analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada. Hydrogeol. J., 12, 270-290.
Scibek, J. & Allen, D.M. (2006) Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resour. Res., 42, W11405.
Scibek, J. et al. (2007) Groundwater-surface water interactions under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model. J. Hydrol., 333, 165-181.

Australasia (to develop)

Chiew, F.H. et al. (2009) Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia: Method, results and implications of the modelling method. Water Resour. Res., 45, W10414.

Europe (to develop)

Herrera-Pantoja, M. & Hiscock, K.M. (2008) The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain. Hydrol. Proc., 22, 73-86